More Elderly Than Children for the First Time in 2040 | Aging Population Effect
The population of man aged over 65 will exceed the number of children under 5 years old in 2040, for the first time in history, according to a study released by the Census Bureau United States, which warned of the impact that this development. It is predicted huge impact will occurs in both the developed and developing countries. Diverse area will affected by these changes in population’s composition. It can have big impacts on the economy, especially on the cost of pensions, public expenditure on health care cost and the evolution of gross domestic product.
In mid 2008 the world population over age 65 was 506 million. In 2040 it is expected to reach 1,300 million and the number will represent 14% of the total population. “People aged 65 and older will soon exceed the total number of children under five years for the first time in history,” cited Kevin Kinsella and Wan He, from the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Aging is affecting all countries in all regions of the world,” said Richard Suzman from the National Institute of Aging, the agency that commissioned the report. “Although there are important differences between developed and developing countries, global aging is changing the social and economic nature of the planet and may present difficult challenges,” he added.
The report indicates that persons age 80 and older are the component of the total population that is increasing in many countries. Overall, this population could increase by 233% between 2008 and 2040. Within a few years, from 2010, the number and proportion of elderly people, especially older, start to rise very rapidly in most developed countries and many developing countries.
This increase in the number of elderly is primarily the result of higher levels of fertility after the Second World War, and in second instance, the decrease in mortality among the elderly, “says the report.
In any case, the phenomenon is not limited to developed countries. “By 2040, the countries currently under development will be home to more than one billion people older than 65 years, 76% of that projected for the entire world,” says the study. Every month, around 870,000 people reaching 65 years of age, and within 10 years is estimated that this amount is 1.9 million people.
The Economic Effect of Aging Population
“The reduction in the percentage of workers to pensioners and the number of people who spend a greater part of his life as a retiree health care will increase the existing tax and pension systems,” according to the document. This influence an increased with age-related diseases such as cancer and coronary problems, thereby increasing health care costs.
If the economies moving, increasing age is not necessarily harmful, the report says. However, the study cites 2006 data from the European Commission under which the cost of pensions, health care and long-term mean an increase in public spending and result in a decline in growth of gross domestic product in each country. “In the absence of political change, economic growth potential of the EU could be halved by 2030,” says the document.
The study indicates that Japan — with 22% of the total population — is the country with the highest percentage of population over 65 years in the world. China is the country with the largest number of elderly (with 106 million), followed by India with 59.6 million. United States has 38.7 million people living over 65 years, Japan has 27.5 million and Russia has 19.9 million.
62% of the population older than 65 years residing in developing countries such as Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and Oceania. According to the report, by 2040, there will be more than one in four Europeans will be over 65 and one in seven will be greater than 75.
At present, Japan and Sinpagur have a life expectancy of 82 years. The main EU countries like Australia and Canada have a life expectancy of around 80. In United States the life expectancy is 78, over Tunisia (75) and Guatemala (70). In Zimbabwe, life expectancy at birth is 39.7 years. In 1900, women in Europe and North America tended to survive two or three years for men. At present, the difference is usually seven years.